Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly due to the complexity of the interaction between individual components involved. In this work, we introduce a lattice-based epidemic model coupled with a stochastic process that mimics, in a very simplified way, the interaction between the hosts and pathogen. We studied the disease spread by measuring the propagation velocity of the pathogen on the susceptible hosts. Our quantitative results indicate the occurrence of a critical transition between two stable phases: local confinement and an extended epiphytotic outbreak that depends on the density of the susceptible individuals. Quantitative predictions of epiphytotics are performed using the framework early-warning indicators for impending regime shifts, widely applied on dynamical systems. These signals forecast successfully the outcome of the critical shift between the two stable phases before the system enters the epiphytotic regime. Our study demonstrates that early-warning indicators could be useful for the prediction of forest disease epidemics through mathematical and computational models suited to more specific pathogen–host-environmental interactions. Our results may also be useful to identify a suitable planting density to slow down disease spread and in the future, design highly resilient forests

Vortex Solutions in a Binary Immiscible Bose-Einstein Condensate

We consider the mean-field vortex solutions and their stability within a two-component Bose Einstein condensate in the immiscible limit. A variational approach is employed to study a system consisting of a majority component which contains a single quantised vortex and a minority component which fills the vortex core. We show that a super-Gaussian function is a good approximation to the two-component vortex solution for a range of atom numbers of the in-filling component, by comparing the variational solutions to the full numerical solutions of the coupled Gross-Pitaevskii equations. We subsequently examine the stability of the vortex solutions by perturbing the in-filling component away from the centre of the vortex core, thereby demonstrating their stability to small perturbations.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Visualizing Pure Quantum Turbulence in Superfluid 3^{3}He: Andreev Reflection and its Spectral Properties

Superfluid $^3$He-B in the zero-temperature limit offers a unique means of studying quantum turbulence by the Andreev reflection of quasiparticle excitations by the vortex flow fields. We validate the experimental visualization of turbulence in $^3$He-B by showing the relation between the vortex-line density and the Andreev reflectance of the vortex tangle in the first simulations of the Andreev reflectance by a realistic 3D vortex tangle, and comparing the results with the first experimental measurements able to probe quantum turbulence on length scales smaller than the inter-vortex separation.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, and Supplemental Material (2 pages, 2 figures

Coherent laminar and turbulent motion of toroidal vortex bundles

Motivated by experiments performed in superfluid helium, we study numerically the motion of toroidal bundles of vortex filaments in an inviscid fluid. We find that the evolution of these large-scale vortex structures involves the generalised leapfrogging of the constituent vortex rings. Despite three dimensional perturbations in the form of Kelvin waves and vortex reconnections, toroidal vortex bundles retain their coherence over a relatively large distance (compared to their size), in agreement with experimental observations.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figure

Cross-sections of Andreev scattering by quantized vortex rings in 3He-B

We studied numerically the Andreev scattering cross-sections of three-dimensional isolated quantized vortex rings in superfluid 3He-B at ultra-low temperatures. We calculated the dependence of the cross-section on the ring's size and on the angle between the beam of incident thermal quasiparticle excitations and the direction of the ring's motion. We also introduced, and investigated numerically, the cross-section averaged over all possible orientations of the vortex ring; such a cross-section may be particularly relevant for the analysis of experimental data. We also analyzed the role of screening effects for Andreev reflection of quasiparticles by systems of vortex rings. Using the results obtained for isolated rings we found that the screening factor for a system of unlinked rings depends strongly on the average radius of the vortex ring, and that the screening effects increase with decreasing the rings' size.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures ; submitted to Physical Review

Economic compensation interventions to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BackgroundEconomic compensation interventions may help support higher voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) coverage in priority sub-Saharan African countries. To inform World Health Organization guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of economic compensation interventions to increase VMMC uptake.MethodsEconomic compensation interventions were defined as providing money or in-kind compensation, reimbursement for associated costs (e.g. travel, lost wages), or lottery entry. We searched five electronic databases and four scientific conferences for studies examining the impact of such interventions on VMMC uptake, HIV testing and safer-sex/risk-reduction counseling uptake within VMMC, community expectations about compensation, and potential coercion. We screened citations, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We conducted random-effects meta-analysis. We also reviewed studies examining acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.ResultsOf 2484 citations identified, five randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and three non-randomized controlled trials met our eligibility criteria. Studies took place in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Meta-analysis of four RCTs showed significant impact of any economic compensation on VMMC uptake (relative risk: 5.23, 95% CI: 3.13 to 8.76). RCTs of food/transport vouchers and conditional cash transfers generally showed increases in VMMC uptake, but lotteries, subsidized VMMC, and receiving a gift appeared somewhat less effective. Three non-randomized trials showed mixed impact. Six additional studies suggested economic compensation interventions were generally acceptable, valued for addressing key barriers, and motivating to men. However, some participants felt they were insufficiently motivating or necessary; one study suggested they might raise community suspicions. One study from South Africa found a program cost of US$91 per additional circumcision and US$450-$1350 per HIV infection averted.ConclusionsEconomic compensation interventions, particularly transport/food vouchers, positively impacted VMMC uptake among adult men and were generally acceptable to potential clients. Carefully selected economic interventions may be a useful targeted strategy to enhance VMMC coverage

Service delivery interventions to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention: A systematic review.

BackgroundVoluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an essential component of combination HIV prevention services, particularly in priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa. As VMMC programs seek to maximize impact and efficiency, and to support World Health Organization guidance, specific uptake-enhancing strategies are critical to identify.MethodsWe systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate the impact of service delivery interventions (e.g., facility layout, service co-location, mobile outreach) on VMMC uptake among adolescent and adult men. For the main effectiveness review, we searched for publications or conference abstracts that measured VMMC uptake or uptake of HIV testing or risk reduction counselling within VMMC services. We synthesized data by coding categories and outcomes. We also reviewed studies assessing acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.ResultsFour randomized controlled trials and five observational studies were included in the effectiveness review. Studies took place in South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. They assessed a range of service delivery innovations, including community-, school-, and facility-based interventions. Overall, interventions increased VMMC uptake; some successfully improved uptake among age-specific subpopulations, but urban-rural stratification showed no clear trends. Interventions that increased adult men's uptake included mobile services (compared to static facilities), home-based testing with active referral follow-up, and facility-based HIV testing with enhanced comprehensive sexual education. Six acceptability studies suggested interventions were generally perceived to help men choose to get circumcised. Eleven cost studies suggested interventions create economies-of-scale and efficiencies. Three studies suggested such interventions were feasible, improving facility preparedness, service quality and quantity, and efficiencies.ConclusionsInnovative changes in male-centered VMMC services can improve adult men's and adolescent boys' VMMC uptake. Limited evidence on interventions that enhance access and acceptability show promising results, but evidence gaps persist due to inconsistent intervention definition and delivery, due in part to contextual relevance and limited age disaggregation

Effectiveness and safety of oral HIV preexposure prophylaxis for all populations.

ObjectivePreexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) offers a promising new approach to HIV prevention. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the evidence for use of oral PrEP containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate as an additional HIV prevention strategy in populations at substantial risk for HIV based on HIV acquisition, adverse events, drug resistance, sexual behavior, and reproductive health outcomes.DesignRigorous systematic review and meta-analysis.MethodsA comprehensive search strategy reviewed three electronic databases and conference abstracts through April 2015. Pooled effect estimates were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsEighteen studies were included, comprising data from 39 articles and six conference abstracts. Across populations and PrEP regimens, PrEP significantly reduced the risk of HIV acquisition compared with placebo. Trials with PrEP use more than 70% demonstrated the highest PrEP effectiveness (risk ratio = 0.30, 95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.45, P < 0.001) compared with placebo. Trials with low PrEP use did not show a significantly protective effect. Adverse events were similar between PrEP and placebo groups. More cases of drug-resistant HIV infection were found among PrEP users who initiated PrEP while acutely HIV-infected, but incidence of acquiring drug-resistant HIV during PrEP use was low. Studies consistently found no association between PrEP use and changes in sexual risk behavior. PrEP was not associated with increased pregnancy-related adverse events or hormonal contraception effectiveness.ConclusionPrEP is protective against HIV infection across populations, presents few significant safety risks, and there is no evidence of behavioral risk compensation. The effective and cost-effective use of PrEP will require development of best practices for fostering uptake and adherence among people at substantial HIV risk

Reconnection dynamics and mutual friction in quantum turbulence

We investigate the behaviour of the mutual friction force in finite temperature quantum turbulence in 4He, paying particular attention to the role of quantized vortex reconnections. Through the use of the vortex filament model, we produce three experimentally relevant types of vortex tangles in steady-state conditions, and examine through statistical analysis, how local properties of the tangle influence the mutual friction force. Finally, by monitoring reconnection events, we present evidence to indicate that vortex reconnections are the dominant mechanism for producing areas of high curvature and velocity leading to regions of high mutual friction, particularly for homogeneous and isotropic vortex tangles